An estimate of the proportion of diarrhoeal disease episodes seen by general practitioners attributable to rotavirus in children under 5 y of age in England and Wales

Abstract

Mean weekly incidence rates for a 4-week period of new episodes of infectious intestinal disease (IID) and laboratory reports of faecal isolations in children under 5 y of age presenting in general practice were used to estimate the incidence of IID due to rotavirus infection in England and Wales. Between January 1992 and December 1996, a total of 92452 new episodes of IID were seen at sentinel general practices and reported to the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research Unit in Birmingham, UK. Of these 32% (29592) were in children under 5 y of age. During the same period the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre (CDSC) in London, UK received 159532 reports of faecal identifications in children under 5 y of age; 69219 (43%) of these were due to rotavirus. By modelling RCGP data and laboratory reports, the proportion of episodes attributable to rotavirus infection was estimated to be 29% (95% CI: 24% to 34%). By extrapolation of RCGP data it was estimated that rotavirus accounted for 762000 of new episodes of IID nationally in children under 5 y of age between January 1992 and December 1996. Implementation of a rotavirus vaccination programme could substantially reduce the incidence of childhood diarrhoea.