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. 1991 Fall;13(1):1-15.

Projections of national health expenditures through the year 2000

S T Sonnefeld  1 , D R Waldo, J A Lemieux, D R McKusick
Affiliations

Projections of national health expenditures through the year 2000

S T Sonnefeld et al. Health Care Financ Rev. 1991 Fall.

Abstract

In this article, the authors present a scenario for health expenditures during the 1990s. Assuming that current laws and practices remain unchanged, the Nation will spend $1.6 trillion for health care in the year 2000, an amount equal to 16.4 percent of that year's gross national product. Medicare and Medicaid will foot an increasing share of the Nation's health bill, rising to more than one-third of the total. The factors accounting for growth in national health spending are described as well as the effects of those factors on spending by type of service and by source of funds.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Percent change in national health expenditures (NHE) and gross national product (GNP), and NHE as a percent of GNP: 1966-89 and projections 1990-2000
Figure 2
Figure 2. The Nation's health dollar—sources and destinations: 1991, 1995, and 2000
Figure 3
Figure 3. Annual change in use, intensity, and deflated price of expenditures for community hospital inpatient services: 1966-2000
Figure 4
Figure 4. Annual change in use, intensity, and deflated price of expenditures for community hospital outpatient services: 1966-2000
Figure 5
Figure 5. Government expenditures for health as a percent of total government expenditures: 1965-97
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Arnett RA, III, McKusick DR, Sonnefeld ST, Cowell CS. Health Care Financing Review. 3. Vol. 7. Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office; Spring. 1986. Projections of health care spending to 1990; pp. 1–36. HCFA Pub. No. 03222. Office of Research and Demonstrations, Health Care Financing Administration. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Board of Trustees of the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund. The 1991 annual report of the board, pursuant to section 1817(b) of the Social Security Act as amended. Baltimore, Md.: Health Care Financing Administration; May, 1991.
    1. Board of Trustees of the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Trust Fund. The 1991 annual report of the board, pursuant to section 201(c)(2) of the Social Security Act as amended. Baltimore, Md.: Social Security Administration; May, 1991.
    1. Board of Trustees of the Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund. The 1991 annual report of the board, pursuant to section 184(b) of the Social Security Act as amended. Baltimore, Md.: Health Care Financing Administration; May, 1991.
    1. Bureau of Health Professions. Seventh report to the President and Congress on the status of health personnel in the United States. Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office; Mar, 1990. DHHS Pub. No. HRS-P-OD-90-1. Health Resources and Services Administration, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

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