Survival prediction of terminally ill cancer patients by clinical symptoms: development of a simple indicator

Abstract

Background: Although accurate prediction of survival is essential for palliative care, no clinical tools have been established.

Methods: Performance status and clinical symptoms were prospectively assessed on two independent series of terminally ill cancer patients (training set, n = 150; testing set, n = 95). On the training set, the cases were divided into two groups with or without a risk factor for shorter than 3 and 6 weeks survival, according to the way the classification achieved acceptable predictive value. The validity of this classification for survival prediction was examined on the test samples.

Results: The cases with performance status 10 or 20, dyspnea at rest or delirium were classified in the group with a predicted survival of shorter than 3 weeks. The cases with performance status 10 or 20, edema, dyspnea at rest or delirium were classified in the group with a predicted survival of shorter than 6 weeks. On the training set, this classification predicted 3 and 6 weeks survival with sensitivity 75 and 76% and specificity 84 and 78%, respectively. On the test populations, whether patients survived for 3 and 6 weeks or not was predicted with sensitivity 85 and 79% and specificity 84 and 72%, respectively.

Conclusion: Whether or not patients live for 3 and 6 weeks can be acceptably predicted by this simple classification.