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Review
. 1981 Winter;2(3):97-138.

National health expenditures: short-term outlook and long-term projections

M S Freeland, C E Schendler
Review

National health expenditures: short-term outlook and long-term projections

M S Freeland et al. Health Care Financ Rev. 1981 Winter.

Abstract

This paper presents projections of national health expenditures by type of expenditure and source of funds for 1981, 1985, and 1990. Rapid growth in national health expenditures is projected to continue through 1990. National health expenditures increased 400 percent between 1965 and 1979, reaching $212 billion in 1979. As a proportion of the Gross National Product (GNP), health expenditures rose from 6.1 percent to 9.0 percent between 1965 and 1979. They are expected to continue to rise, reaching 10.8 percent by 1990. This study projects that, under current legislation, national health expenditures will research $279 billion in 1981, $462 billion in 1985, and $821 billion in 1990. Sources of payments for these expenditures are shifting. From 1965 to 1979, the percentage of total health expenditures financed by public funds increased 17 percentage points--from 26 to 43 percent. The Federal share of public funds during this same period grew rapidly, from 51 percent in 1965 to 67 percent in 1979. This study projects that in 1985 approximately 45 percent of total health spending will be financed from public funds, of which 68 percent will be paid for by the Federal government. Public funds will account for 46 percent of total national health expenditure by 1990.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Factors Accounting for Growth in Expenditures for Selected Services 1969-1979
Figure 2
Figure 2. Total National Health Expenditures Selected Years 1950 to 1990
Figure 3
Figure 3. Percent Distribution of Total National Health Expenditures by Source of Funds for Selected Years, 1950 to 1979
Figure 4
Figure 4. Health Care Expenditures as a Percent of Government Expenditures for Selected Years, 1950 to 1979
Figure 5
Figure 5. Drug Industry Trends for Productivity and Inflation-Adjusted Prices (Producer and Consumer), 1965-1978
Figure 6
Figure 6. Index of Nominal and Real Expenditures for Construction of Medical Facilities, 1965 to 1979 (1965 = 100.0)
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References

    1. Altman Stuart H, Blendon Robert., editors. Medical Technology: The Culprit Behind Health Care Costs?; Proceedings of the 1977 Sun Valley Forum on National Health; 1979. DHEW Publication No. (PHS) 79-3216.
    1. Altman Stuart H, Eichenholz Joseph. Control of Hospital Costs Under the Economic Stabilization Program. Federal Register. 1974 Jan 23;39(No. 16):2698.
    1. American Dental Association. Dental Insurance Enrollment May Exceed 90 Million Citizens by 1985. ADA News. 1979 Jun 11;
    1. American Hospital Association. Hospitals. National Hospital Panel Survey; Hospital Indicators. various monthly issues.
    1. American Hospital Association. Hospital Statistics, 1980 Edition. 1980.

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