Determining Ontario's supply and requirements for ophthalmologists in 2000 and 2005: 2. A comparison of projected supply and requirements

Abstract

Background: To determine whether the projected supply of ophthalmologists in 2000 and 2005 in Ontario will be matched by the predicted requirements.

Methods: Described in the accompanying paper (page 74).

Results: Multiple regression analysis predicted a supply of 485 +/- 15 full-time-equivalent (FTE) ophthalmologists in 2000 and 476 +/- 14 FTEs in 2005. Except for the needs-based method of determining requirements, which generated a figure of 524 +/- 16 to 533 +/- 16 FTEs, the requirement methods yielded estimates that were within the range of the projected supply for 2000 (physician:population ratio method 458, utilization-based method 500 +/- 15 and substitution method 470 +/- 14 to 490 +/- 15). For 2005, only the physician:population ratio method gave an FTE requirement estimate (489) that was in keeping with the projected supply. The other models gave FTE estimates that were higher than the projected supply (utilization-based model 559 +/- 17, substitution model 526 +/- 16 to 548 +/- 16, and needs-based model 585 +/- 18 to 596 +/- 18).

Interpretation: The reduction in the number of ophthalmology residents in Ontario that began in 1994 will not affect the short-term requirements for ophthalmologists but may result in fewer ophthalmologists than will be necessary to fulfil Ontario's requirements in 2005 and beyond. Possible solutions include doubling the number of residency positions beginning in 1999.