[Gompertzian analysis of mortality due to lung cancer in Spain, 1968-1995]

Abstract

Objective: To analyse lung cancer mortality trend in Spain from 1968 to 1995, distinguishing effects due to environmental and competing factors.

Methods: Age-standardised mortality rates from lung cancer are estimated using a world standard population. A graphical analysis of age, period, and cohort effects is made. Environmental and competing factors influencing in lung cancer mortality are quantify mediant the Gompertzian longitudinal analysis.

Results: Lung cancer mortality increased from 1968 to 1995 in Spanish men; in women, it rests nearly constant to 1989 but a light increase is shown from 1989 on. A cohort effect in men is appreciated but no detectable effect in women is shown by the age, period, and cohort analysis. Lung cancer in Spain is a Gompertzian disease with intersection point in 66 years for men and 76 years for women. Competing factors remained constant and environmental factors increased in men throughout the studied period. However, competing factor decreased in women to 1992, causing a decrease in mortality rates under 76 years; environmental factors remain constant in women.

Conclusions: The evolution of environmental factors is responsible of the main part of changes in lung cancer mortality in men, and treatment improvements have had a little influence. In women, competing risks, probably the increase in breast cancer mortality, have prevent a increase in lung cancer mortality.