Detecting population expansion and decline using microsatellites

Abstract

This article considers a demographic model where a population varies in size either linearly or exponentially. The genealogical history of microsatellite data sampled from this population can be described using coalescent theory. A method is presented whereby the posterior probability distribution of the genealogical and demographic parameters can be estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The likelihood surface for the demographic parameters is complicated and its general features are described. The method is then applied to published microsatellite data from two populations. Data from the northern hairy-nosed wombat show strong evidence of decline. Data from European humans show weak evidence of expansion.