Cross-validation of a model predicting discharge home after stroke rehabilitation. Validating stroke discharge predictors

Abstract

A new sample of 116 stroke patients was collected in order to validate a logistic regression model, predicting the chances of severely affected stroke patients being discharged home to independent living. The model was found to be accurate in the new sample, especially for those patients who had a high estimated probability of being discharged home. When the dividing line for the predicted probability for discharge home was set at a value of >/=0.5, the positive and negative predictive values were 74 and 73%, respectively. Further modelling resulted in a new extended model including the variables postural stability on admission, cohabiting, age and perceptual impairment on admission that formed the basis for an index predicting discharge home. This index was then validated in the sample of 93 patients that the first developed model was derived from and showed positive and negative predictive values of 85 and 77%, respectively.