Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2000 Mar;90(3):401-3.
doi: 10.2105/ajph.90.3.401.

Smoking prevalence in 2010: why the healthy people goal is unattainable

D Mendez  1 , K E Warner
Affiliations

Smoking prevalence in 2010: why the healthy people goal is unattainable

D Mendez et al. Am J Public Health. 2000 Mar.

Abstract

Objectives: This study examined the changes in smoking initiation and cessation needed to realize the Healthy People 2010 national adult smoking prevalence objective (13%).

Methods: Using data from the National Health Interview Surveys, we calculated smoking prevalence over time with a dynamic population demographics model, examining the effects of changes in smoking initiation and cessation.

Results: The draft objective is unattainable solely through decreases in smoking initiation. It could be achieved through smoking cessation alone only if cessation rates immediately increased by a factor of more than 3.5. Assuming plausible decreases in initiation and increases in cessation, the draft objective is virtually unattainable.

Conclusions: The health objectives should challenge the status quo but be achievable. Formal analysis often can assist in establishing reasonable objectives.

PubMed Disclaimer

Comment in

References

    1. Cancer. 1998 Dec 15;83(12 Suppl Robert):2722-7 - PubMed
    1. Am J Public Health. 1999 Jan;89(1):61-5 - PubMed
    1. Am J Epidemiol. 1998 Aug 1;148(3):249-58 - PubMed
    1. BMJ. 1998 Nov 28;317(7171):1513-7 - PubMed
    1. Am J Public Health. 1998 Sep;88(9):1362-7 - PubMed

Publication types