[Early prediction of lack of response to treatment with interferon and interferon plus ribavirin using biochemical and virological criteria in patients with chronic hepatitis C]

Abstract

The objectives of this study were the following: 1) to evaluate the predictive value of the detection of RNA-HVC compared to GPT in the third month of treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with IFN, and at the first and third month in patients treated with IFN and ribavirin for 6 and 12 months. The study included: A) 80/132 patients treated with IFN (3 MU/3 times a week for 6-12 months), and B) 70/110 patients who had previously not responded to IFN, and who were treated with combination therapy (IFN: standard dose, ribavirin: 1200 mg/day) for 6 months (n = 40) and 12 months (n = 30). In group A, the positive predictive value (the probability of predicting the lack of response if the RNA-HVC was positive or if the GPT was elevated at the third month) was greater for RNA-HVC than for GPT (97.9% vs. 94.4%), although the response was not unequivocal (2.3% vs. 10.5%). The negative predictive value was 48.6% vs. 36.2%, respectively. The prediction level (odds ratio) of RNA-HVC and of GPT was 39.7 vs. 8.78 (p <0.000001 vs. p <0.002). The positive predictive value was 97.6% in patients with genotype 1, 4 and 5, and 100% in those with genotype 2 and 3. In group B, the positive predictive value was also greater for RNA-HVC than for GPT at the first month (100% vs. 94.4%) following six months of therapy, the odds ratio being infinite vs. 7.6. The positive predictive value was greater for RNA-HVC at the third month than at the first (100% vs. 91%), whereas it was similar for GPT (100%) with 12 months of therapy, the odds ratio being greater for GPT than for RNA-HVC at the first month (infinite and 7.27). The following was concluded: 1) detection of RNA-HVC at the third month of treatment with IFN predicts in advance a lack of response in patients, with a minimum risk of error; 2) in patients with six months of combined therapy, the detection of RNA-HVC at the first month is extremely reliable in the prediction of a lack of response, whereas after 12 months of combined therapy, elevated GPT values at the first month and the detection of RNA-HVC at the third are highly predictive of a lack of response.