Cholera dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Abstract

Analysis of a monthly 18-year cholera time series from Bangladesh shows that the temporal variability of cholera exhibits an interannual component at the dominant frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results from nonlinear time series analysis support a role for both ENSO and previous disease levels in the dynamics of cholera. Cholera patterns are linked to the previously described changes in the atmospheric circulation of south Asia and, consistent with these changes, to regional temperature anomalies.