The global diabetes model: user friendly version 3.0

Abstract

The attributes of Release 3.0 of the user friendly version (UFV) of the global diabetes model (GDM) are described and documented in detail. The GDM is a continuous, stochastic microsimulation model of type 2 diabetes. Suitable for predicting the medical futures of both individuals with diabetes and representative diabetic populations, the GDM predicts medical events (complications of diabetes), survival, utilities, and medical care costs. Incidence rate functions for microvascular and macrovascular complications are based on a combination of published studies and analyses of data describing diabetic members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest Region, a non-profit group-model health maintenance organization. Active risk factors include average blood glucose (HbAlc), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), triglycerides, smoking status, and use of prophylactic aspirin. Events predicted include diabetic eye disease, diabetic nephropathy, peripheral neuropathy amputation, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral artery disease, congestive heart failure, coronary artery surgery, coronary angioplasty, and death.