Influence of mathematical modeling of HIV and AIDS on policies and programs in the developing world

Abstract

Background: A number of simulation models have been developed to explore the dynamics of the AIDS epidemic. There seems to be minimal impact of these models on policies and programs.

Goal: To describe the major findings from simulation modeling and the impact of these findings on policies and programs.

Study design: A literature review to summarize the major findings that are supported by more than one modeling group.

Results: Simulation modeling has contributed to improved understanding of a number of issues including the demographic impact of AIDS, the value of targeting prevention efforts to high-risk behavior, the importance of controlling STDs, the benefits of early intervention, and the need for combined interventions.

Conclusions: Modeling has played a major role in increasing our understanding of the dynamics of the epidemic and in demonstrating how much we still need to learn. Its impact on policies and programs has been limited. The need for better translation of modeling findings to policy action will be even greater in the future.