Biological markers may add to prediction of outcome achieved by the International Prognostic Score in Hodgkin's disease

Abstract

Background: The International Prognostic Score (IPS) identifies seven independent factors predicting progression-free and overall survival in advanced stage Hodgkin's disease (HD). The IPS is also applicable in limited disease. However, the IPS does not identify patients with a very poor prognosis. The aim of this study was to define biological markers which may add to the IPS in predicting outcome.

Patients and methods: One hundred forty-five patients (> 15 years) with HD of all stages and histopathology subgroups were included. In addition to factors included in the IPS, serum levels of CRP, sCD4, sCD8, sCD25, sCD30, sCD54, interleukin (IL)-10, beta2-microglobulin and thymidine kinase were analysed.

Results: The strongest predictors of a poor cause-specific survival (CSS) in univariate analyses were: increased serum levels of IL-10, sCD30 and CRP, anaemia, low levels of albumin (P < 0.001); stage IV (P = 0.003), age > or = 45 years (P = 0.006), increased serum levels of sCD25 (P = 0.010), low lymphocyte counts (P = 0.020). Serum IL-10 added prognostic information to that achieved by the IPS: patients with a high score and increased serum IL-10 had a very poor outcome with a five-year CSS of 38%. Patients with increased serum levels of sCD30 and a high score also had a poor outcome with a five-year CSS of 54%.

Conclusion: Serum levels of IL-10 and sCD30 may add to IPS in prediction of outcome in HD, and should be validated in large, prospective studies.