Predictors of musculoskeletal pain in men: A twenty-year follow-up from examination at enlistment

Abstract

Study design: Prospective study with follow-up by a postal questionnaire to 6626 men nearly 40 years of age who had been examined for the first time at the age of 18.

Objectives: To study the predictability of frequent musculoskeletal problems, health, lifestyle, and work situation from the examination 20 years earlier.

Background: Those who enlisted for military duty during 6 months in 1979-1980 answered a questionnaire focusing on back pain, smoking, and physical work exposure. As these men enter the biologic age when back pain is most frequent, a follow-up was of interest.

Methods: A new questionnaire was sent to those from the enlistment group who could be identified in the population register, and the answers were compared with those given at enlistment.

Results: The prevalence of low back pain increased from 38% to 74% during the 20-year period. Neck or shoulder problems were nearly as common as back problems. The number of those with a body mass index more than 25 had increased from 9% to 50%, and smoking had decreased from 29% to 14%. The odds ratio for frequent back/neck/shoulder problems at follow-up evaluation was 8.7 (95% CI: 3.78-20.10) if the person had experienced back pain that greatly affected everyday life at enlistment, 3.0 (95% CI: 2.33-3.93) if he had been off work or school because of that pain, and 2.2 (95% CI 1.57-3.24) if he had been doing heavy work already at the time of enlistment.

Conclusion: Early back pain causing absence from work, reduced activity levels because of the pain, and heavy work loads showed a significantly increased risk for frequent pain problems at follow-up examination.