How should patients with hepatocellular carcinoma be staged? Validation of a new prognostic system

Abstract

Background: The life expectancy of a patient with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhosis is hard to predict, making it difficult to decide whether a certain treatment is indicated and what to say to the patient regarding prognosis. A new score recently has been proposed, which includes the parameters involved in the Child-Pugh stage, plus macroscopic tumor morphology, alpha-fetoprotein levels, and the presence or absence of portal thrombosis. The score has been validated in internal control series, but its general applicability has yet to be confirmed. The authors compared the discriminatory ability of the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score with those of the Okuda and TNM staging systems and the Child-Pugh classification in a group of cirrhotic patients with HCC, diagnosed and followed up by their unit.

Methods: One hundred fifty-four patients with histologically ascertained HCC in cirrhosis were recruited (median age, 62.5 years; male/female ratio, 122/32) and prospectively followed up. Staging was performed at the baseline using the Child-Pugh, Okuda, TNM, and CLIP systems.

Results: The CLIP score was able to predict survival better than the Okuda or TNM staging system, as confirmed by the Kaplan-Meier comparison of survival curves and by the Cox regression analysis, with a median survival rate of 31, 27, 13, 8, 2, and 2 months in patients with CLIP Stages 0, I, II, III, IV, and V-VI, respectively. The Child-Pugh classification performed as well as the Okuda. The predictive capacity of CLIP score was confirmed in the subgroup of patients undergoing chemoembolization. Overall, the survival rate in the authors' series was higher than predicted on the basis of previous reports.

Conclusions: The CLIP score, which is based on simple features of the patient and of the tumor, can accurately identify patients with different prognoses, particularly in the early phases of HCC, thus representing a useful tool in the management of the disease and of the affected patient.