Actuarial risk assessment models: a review of critical issues related to violence and sex-offender recidivism assessments

Abstract

Risk assessment in the area of identification of violence has been dichotomized by several prominent researchers as the "clinical approach" versus the "actuarial method". The proponents of the actuarial approach argue for actuarially derived decisions to replace existing clinical practice. The actuarial method requires no clinical input, just a translation of the relevant material from the records to calculate the risk score. A risk appraisal approach based upon a sole actuarial method raises several questions: those of public safety, peer-accepted standards of practice, liability issues, and concordance with evidence-based medicine practice. We conclude that the sole actuarial approach fails to satisfy these critical issues.