Outpatients. A pretty little sum

Abstract

Achieving the government's target of a maximum wait of 13 weeks for a first outpatient appointment requires a greater appreciation of randomness in the GP referral rate and non-attendance rate. It is possible to analyse what effect randomness will have on waiting times. The number of GP referrals received in December is a critical factor in determining end-of-year performance in meeting the 13-week target.