Kinetics of human aging: I. Rates of senescence between ages 30 and 70 years in healthy people

Abstract

A calculation of loss rates is reported for human structural and functional variables from a substantially larger data set than has been previously studied. Data were collected for healthy, nonsmoking human subjects of both sexes from a literature search of cross-sectional, longitudinal, and cross-sequential studies. The number of studies analyzed was 469, and the total number of subjects was 54,274. A linear model provided a fit of the data, for each variable, that was not significantly different from the best polynomial fit. Therefore, linear loss rates (as a percent decline per year from the reference value at age 30) were calculated for 445 variables from 13 organ systems, and additionally for 24 variables even more integrative, such as maximum oxygen consumption and exercise performance, that express effects of multiple contributing variables and systems. The frequency distribution of the 13 individual system linear loss rates (as percent loss per year) for a very healthy population has roughly a unimodal, right-skewed shape, with mean 0.65, median 0.5, and variance 0.32. (The actual underlying distribution could be a truncated Gaussian, an exponential, Poisson, gamma or some other). The linear estimates of loss rates were clustered between 0% and 2% per year for variables from most organ systems, with exceptions being the endocrine, thermoregulatory, and gastrointestinal systems, for which wider ranges (up to approximately 3% per year) of loss rates were found. We suggest that this set of linear losses over time, observed in healthy individuals between ages (approximately) 30 to 70 years, exposes the underlying kinetics of human senescence, independent of effects of substantial disease.