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. 2001 Jul;11(4):151-9.
doi: 10.2188/jea.11.151.

Age-period-cohort analysis of lung cancer mortality in Japan, 1960-1995

H Takahashi  1 , M Okada, K Kano
Affiliations

Age-period-cohort analysis of lung cancer mortality in Japan, 1960-1995

H Takahashi et al. J Epidemiol. 2001 Jul.

Abstract

The mortality data on lung cancer in Japan from 1960 to 1995 was analysed based on an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Though the APC model has an 'identifiable problem' caused by the relationship of age, period and cohort parameters, non-linear components of them revealed their original (separated) effects. They were: (1) non-linear age effects had a peak in 55-59 and 60-64 years old in males and 50-54 in females, (2) non-linear period effects were very small in both genders, (3) non-linear age and period effects were small enough to neglect compared with their linear effects, and (4) there were five parts of trends in Japanese lung cancer mortality in both genders in the non-linear birth cohort effects. The 1961-65 birth cohort effect seemed to increase differently from previous birth years. This trend should be monitored carefully.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Non-linear birth cohort effects from APC model by gender.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.. Full birth cohort effects from APC model by gender.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.. The trend of national cigarette sales and smoking prevalence in Japan.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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