Minimizing potential resistance: a population dynamics view

Abstract

I examine the results of studies that used mathematical models of the epidemiology and population genetics of antibiotic treatment and resistance in open communities and in hospitals to explore the following issues: the relationship between antibiotic consumption and the frequency of antibiotic resistance in bacterial populations in communities and in hospitals; methods of controlling the growth, dissemination, and persistence of antibiotic resistance in these settings; the extent to which resistance can be controlled; and the speed with which the effects of control measures will be realized. In open communities, it will take years or even decades to see substantial reductions in the frequency of antibiotic resistance solely as a result of more prudent (reduced) use of antibiotics. However, if we can restrict the input of resistant bacteria into hospitals, through the application of infection control and other measures, it should be possible to reduce the frequency of resistance and even eliminate resistant bacteria from these institutions in short order.