Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2002 Jan;12(1):22-32.
doi: 10.2188/jea.12.22.

The natural history model of hepatitis C virus infection and the economic evaluation of alpha interferon treatment

Kenshi Hayashida  1 , Ichiro Nagasue, Takashi Fukuda, Atsuaki Gunji
Affiliations

The natural history model of hepatitis C virus infection and the economic evaluation of alpha interferon treatment

Kenshi Hayashida et al. J Epidemiol. 2002 Jan.

Abstract

Interferon (IFN) therapy is used for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease, but is so expensive that it creates controversy as to whether or not it is effective use of limited health care resources. In order to make this judgement possible, it must be necessary to build a comprehensive disease model of HCV infection from social perspective. A Markov chain model of the natural history of HCV infection in male patients was developed. Parameters on the clinical phase of the disease were adopted from published reports, but those of the non-clinical phase were estimated from the data on blood donation and mortality rates from the disease. Then, adding in the modeling of treatment outcome from IFN therapy and cost-benefit analysis, IFN therapy was economically evaluated. Using this model, it was shown that (1) IFN therapy for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) would be economically beneficial at least in the Japanese situation, (2) the complete response rate to therapy would be the most sensitive factor affecting outcome, and (3) the younger the person cured by IFN therapy, the greater the benefit seen. These results demonstrate that IFN therapy would be beneficial in the case of the CHC patients (male).

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Markov chain model of the natural history of HCV disease.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.. The rate of HCV RNA positive.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.. The mortality rate of LC and HCC (4 cohorts born in each period).
Figure 4.
Figure 4.. The mortality rate of LC and HCC (compared to a cohort born in 1936-40).
Figure 5-1.
Figure 5-1.. The mortality rate of LC and HCC (cohort born in 1936-40).
Figure 5-2.
Figure 5-2.. The mortality rate of LC and HCC (cohort born in 1941-45).
Figure 5-3.
Figure 5-3.. The mortality rate of LC and HCC (cohort born in 1946-50).
Figure 5-4.
Figure 5-4.. The mortality rate of LC and HCC (cohort born in 1951-55).
Figure 6.
Figure 6.. The rate of HCV RNA positive.
Figure 7-1.
Figure 7-1.. The mortality rate of LC and HCC (cohort born in 1936-40).
Figure 7-2.
Figure 7-2.. The mortality rate of LC and HCC (cohort born in 1941-45).
Figure 7-3.
Figure 7-3.. The mortality rate of LC and HCC (cohort born in 1946-50).
Figure 7-4.
Figure 7-4.. The mortality rate of LC and HCC (cohort born in 1951-55).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

References

    1. Marcellin P, Boyer N, Gervais A, et al. . Long-term histologic improvement and loss of detectable intrahepatic HCV RNA in patients with chronic hepatitis C and sustained response to interferon-α therapy. Ann Intern Med, 1997. ; 127: 875-881. - PubMed
    1. Bennett WG, Inoue Y, Beck JR, Wong JB, Pauker SG, Davis GL. Estimates of the cost-effectiveness of a single course of interferon-α 2b in patients with histologically mild chronic hepatitis C. Ann Intern Med, 127: 855-865. - PubMed
    1. Kim WR, Poterucha JJ, Hermans JE, Therneau TM, Dickson ER, Evans RW, Gross JB Jr. Cost-effectiveness of 6 and 12 months of interferon-α therapy for chronic hepatitis C. Ann Intern Med, 1997; 127: 866-874. - PubMed
    1. Moriguchi H, Sato C. The socioeconomic evaluation of strategical treatment for chronic hepatitis C with interferon. Jpn J Health Econ Policy, 1996; 3: 169-178. (in Japanese)
    1. Wong JB. Cost-effectiveness of treatments for chronic hepatitis C. Am J Med, 1999; 107(6B): 74S-78S. - PubMed