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. 2002 May 14;99 Suppl 3(Suppl 3):7243-50.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.092080199. Epub 2002 May 7.

Modeling civil violence: an agent-based computational approach

Joshua M Epstein  1
Affiliations

Modeling civil violence: an agent-based computational approach

Joshua M Epstein. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

This article presents an agent-based computational model of civil violence. Two variants of the civil violence model are presented. In the first a central authority seeks to suppress decentralized rebellion. In the second a central authority seeks to suppress communal violence between two warring ethnic groups.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Action and grievance screens.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Local outbursts.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Punctuated equilibrium.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Punctuated equilibrium persists.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.
Waiting time distribution.
Fig. 6.
Fig. 6.
Logged data (truncated).
Fig. 7.
Fig. 7.
Total activation distribution.
Fig. 8.
Fig. 8.
Tension (blue) and actives (red).
Fig. 9.
Fig. 9.
Large legitimacy reduction in small increments.
Fig. 10.
Fig. 10.
Small legitimacy reduction in one jump, t = 77.
Fig. 11.
Fig. 11.
Cop reductions.
Fig. 12.
Fig. 12.
Peaceful coexistence.
Fig. 13.
Fig. 13.
Local ethnic cleansing to genocide.
Fig. 14.
Fig. 14.
Safe havens emerge under peacekeeping.
Fig. 15.
Fig. 15.
Waiting time and initial cop density data.
Fig. 16.
Fig. 16.
Waiting time mean and initial cop density.
Fig. 17.
Fig. 17.
Waiting time standard deviation and initial cop density.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Epstein J. M. & Axtell, A., (1996) Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA).
    1. Collier P. (2000) J. Conflict Resolution 44, 839-850.
    1. Collier P. & Hoeffler, A. (1998) Oxford Econ. Papers 50, 563-573.
    1. Collier P. & Hoeffler, A., (1999) Justice-Seeking and Loot-Seeking in Civil War, Working Paper, April (World Bank, Washington, DC).
    1. Collier P. & Hoeffler, A., (2001) Greed and Grievance in Civil War, Policy Research Working Paper 2355 (World Bank, Washington, DC).

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