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. 2002 Jul 27;325(7357):191.
doi: 10.1136/bmj.325.7357.191.

Alcohol consumption and mortality: modelling risks for men and women at different ages

Ian R White  1 , Dan R Altmann, Kiran Nanchahal
Affiliations

Alcohol consumption and mortality: modelling risks for men and women at different ages

Ian R White et al. BMJ. .

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the relation between alcohol consumption and risk of death, the level of alcohol consumption at which risk is least, and how these vary with age and sex.

Design: Analysis using published systematic reviews and population data.

Setting: England and Wales in 1997.

Main outcome measures: Death from any of the following causes: cancer of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, oesophagus, colon, rectum, liver, larynx, and breast, essential hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, cirrhosis, non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease, chronic pancreatitis, and injuries.

Results: A direct dose-response relation exists between alcohol consumption and risk of death in women aged 16-54 and in men aged 16-34. At older ages the relation is U shaped. The level at which the risk is lowest increases with age, reaching 3 units a week in women aged over 65 and 8 units a week in men aged over 65. The level at which the risk is increased by 5% above this minimum is 8 units a week in women aged 16-24 and 5 units a week in men aged 16-24, increasing to 20 and 34 units a week in women and men aged over 65, respectively.

Conclusions: Substantially increased risks of all cause mortality can occur even in people drinking lower than recommended limits, and especially among younger people.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Models for ischaemic heart disease from Corrao and others (used in main analysis) and derived from English and others1 18
Figure 2
Figure 2
Cause specific relative risks by alcohol consumption. When men and women are not shown separately, same model is used for both
Figure 3
Figure 3
Derivation of all cause risks for men aged 65-74. Height of each bar is total risk of all alcohol related causes. Non-alcohol related causes not shown
Figure 4
Figure 4
Risk of all cause mortality (relative to non-drinkers) by level of alcohol consumption in women and men
Figure 5
Figure 5
Level of alcohol consumption at which mortality is least (nadir) and level at which risk is raised by 5% above this minimum risk in women and men (95% confidence intervals show uncertainty due to relative risk functions only)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

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