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. 1999 Jun;15(2):185-98.
doi: 10.1023/a:1006224902376.

A demographic model of measles epidemics

S R Duncan, S Scott, C J Duncan

A demographic model of measles epidemics

S R Duncan et al. Eur J Popul. 1999 Jun.

Abstract

PIP: This paper presents a mathematical model that describes the demography of a population that is afflicted by a series of epidemics of a lethal infectious disease. Annual reports from the Medical Officer of Liverpool, between 1963 and 1999, were utilized in the time-series analysis to illustrate the dynamics of measles in the city. The results coincide with the hypothesis that the measles epidemics during 1863-85 were a driven system, wherein the primary driver was an oscillation in high autumn temperatures. Furthermore, the oscillation in wheat prices, which acted as a secondary driver during this period also, affected the dynamics of the measles epidemics. Finally, appendix is presented discussing modeling the dynamics with a changing population size.

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