Abstract

PIP: This article analyzes statistical indicators of urbanization and food dependence in Subsaharan Africa to examine whether urbanization has induced dependence and steady increases in food imports. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), agricultural imports to Africa grew at an annual pace of 8.5%, increasing from the index of 100 in 1970 to 227 in 1980, while cereal imports alone reached 21 million tons in 1980 compared to 6 in 1970. The growth of imports has occurred in the context of a relative crisis in agriculture involving a decline in per capita food availability and sustained rural exodus. Crude data on commercial agricultural production, food imports, and urban population seem to corroborate the relationships between urbanization and food dependence. According to the FAO, per capita agricultural production declined continuously between 1970-80 by 1.2%/year, while the population in places of over 5000 inhabitants increased from 40 million in 1970 to 75 million in 1980. The general trends mask the concentration of both food imports and urban population; by 1980, just 6 countries were responsible for half the imports and 55% of the total urban population. The relationship between food imports and urban population appears to be verified a priori for only a few countries, notably Nigeria, the Ivory Coast, and Senegal. In general, over both the short and long terms, the weak correlation between urbanization and food imports argues against any univocal interpretation of the results: rhythms of growth of imports have no strong relationship with those of urbanization. The average annual rate of growth of the urban population increased from 5.3% between 1960-70 to 5.9% during the 1970s, while the rate of growth of food imports declined from 4.3% between 1960-70 to 3.5% thereafter. The declining growth rate of food imports occurred in the context of declining per capita food availability estimated by the FAO at -1.2%/year for all SubSaharan countries. Per capita production attained an index of 89.7 in 1978 based on a 1970 level of 100. Imports necessary to ensure a constant food supply would have attained an index of 110.3 in 1978, but in fact the index actually achieved was 107.2 based on 100 in 1970. The level of national income played a determining role in compensating for declining local food production, with oil exporting countries able to import food at a rate in excess of the difference and other nations falling considerably short of compensating. Income effects explain in large part the absence of correlation between level of food production, food imports, and urbanization. As in all econometric studies of countries with deficient data, caution must be applied in interpretation of results. The UN data used do no measure clandestine inter-African food exchanges and define urban areas in purely demographic terms.