Abstract

PIP: Ethnic differences in fertility behavior confirm that socioeconomic variables exert a strong influence on demographic and family planning variables in developing countries such as Sri Lanka. To explain the effects of ethnicity on fertility behavior, predictive path models were developed for the 4 ethnic groups in Sri Lanka--Sinhalese, Tamils, Moors, and Indian Tamils. The path models used in developing predictive models utilized a series of ordinary least squares regression equations. The data were drawn from the 1982 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. Current residence had direct negative effects on education for all 4 ethnic groups, with women in urban areas achieving higher levels of education than those in rural or estate areas; current residence further had a direct positive effect on husband's occupation, with higher socioeconomic status reported for women from urban areas. Age at marriage--the most important determinant of children ever born-- had strong negative effects on fertility for all ethnic groups, but the effect was most marked among Sri Lankan Tamils. Contraceptive knowledge had the same effect on the effectiveness of contraceptive use in all ethnic groups, suggesting that informational campaigns would enhance the decline of fertility in the country as a whole. 47% of the variance in additional children desired was explained by children ever born (negative effect), ideal family size (positive effect), and child mortality (positive effect). 11% of the variance in contraceptive usage was contributed by education (positive effect), children ever born (positive effect), and husband's occupation (negative effect), while 24% of the variance in effectiveness of contraceptive use was explained by additional children wanted (negative effect) and contraceptive knowledge (positive effect). Overall, these findings suggest that socioeconomic assimilation, with consequent higher levels of education, will facilitate more modern behaviors such as later age at marriage and increased use of effective contraception among ethnic minorities in Sri Lanka.