New approaches to the estimation of migration flows from census and administrative data sources

Abstract

Census data represent an important source of information about migration flows. However, existing estimation procedures based on intercensal projection are often inconvenient to apply and are sensitive to even quite small changes in enumeration completeness. 2 new estimation procedures applicable to data from 2 censuses are developed and illustrated using US data. The 1st method is essentially a modification of traditional intercensal projection techniques, but as a result of working with age groups rather than cohorts, it is simpler to apply and allows mortality of the migrants to be incorporated over the intercensal period. The 2nd method also uses information from 2 censuses, but also uses independent information on the age pattern of migration from administrative sources or from other census questions. The method uses the fact that the age pattern of recent migration is likely to be different from the age distribution of the overall population to distinguish between intercensal change due to migration and apparent intercensal change due to changes in enumeration completeness. If the method's assumptions are met, it is possible to estimate the relative coverage of the 2 censuses as well as the scale of the independent age pattern of migration relative to the coverage of 1 or other of the censuses. The illustrative applications of the methods to US data suggest that both can work reasonably well.