Abstract

PIP: Household-level fertility research was examined with the broader contexts of the demographic transition and public policy. The Easterlin-Crimmins (1982, 1985) model was the framework chosen for the examination. It was modified and applied to a sample of rural Egyptian households. An interesting dimension of the Easterlin-Crimmins framework is the presence of a phase of development where fertility is constrained by supplying factors -- a phenomenon most likely to occur in rural settings in the 3rd world. Thus the data set from rural Egypt offers a good opportunity to explore this aspect of their model. The framework also is useful for delineating the relative importance of behavioral versus family planning factors in explaining changes in the fertility of a population. On average, estimated Cn (surviving natural fertility) approximately equaled Cd (desired surviving family size) for the noncontracepting subpopulation of rural Egypt. These families had little or no motivation for contraception and remain in the premodernization Phase I, i.e., the desired number of surviving children exceeds the number of surviving children under a natural fertility regime. In contrast, the noncontracepting subset of families drawn from both the rural and urban areas of Sri Lanka and Colombia, already had embarked on Phase II, i.e., the supply constraint is released, but contraception is too costly. By applying child survivorship rates (s) to actual fertility for the contracepting subsets of women, on average, actual surviving fertility exceeded Cd by 1.0 children in rural Egypt, 2.0 in Sri Lanka, and 2.9 in Colombia. All 3 of these populations are in Phase III, i.e., contraception becomes increasingly pervasive as the gap between Cn and Cd widens and contraceptive costs decline. The methodology offers promise for identifying the separate influences of family planning and socioeconomic change. The results provided insights into the basic determinants underlying the demographic transition. Duration of marriage was the most single powerful determinant of completed family size in rural Egypt. Prolonged breastfeeding (20 months on average) was only slightly less powerful in reducing fertility in rural Egypt than contraception. The rise in child survivorship inherent in socioeconomic development raised the natural supply of children. Families did respond when family size expectations exceed desired, with the most educated being the most responsive. Contraceptors were more fecund than noncontraceptors in rural Egypt, and their child survivorship rates were higher.