Abstract

PIP: Continuity and discrete development equations for China are described and discussed using a parity regression model and the household condition life table model in order to capture a dynamic household population with multiple demographic conditions: marriage, family, reproduction, and the number of surviving children. The equations include a linear 1st-order skew differential equation set with initial conditions. Householders are differentiated by single-person household markers, core family markers, trunk family markers, and nonmarkers or nonhouseholders. Marital status is classified as unmarried, married, divorced, and widowed. 4 assumptions determine conditional probability: 1) unmarried, divorced, and widowed women have no reproductive behavior, unmarrieds have no children, the number of surviving children is no greater than the number of children they have given birth to. 2) The total number of parity-specific and surviving-children-number-specific women is determined according to the respective %s of married, divorced, and widowed women out of the total. 3) Women's parity regression fertility rate is unrelated to the number of their surviving children. 4) Children's average survival rate is determined by the number of surviving children. Based on the 1% sample of the 1987 Chinese Population Census, predictions are generated for the next 50 years for women's household demographic conditions. Mortality rate, parity regression fertility rate, children's average survival rate, 1st marriage rate, widowhood rate, and divorce rate are assumed to remain stable. The marital status changes between 1987 an 2037 show a drop by 6.3% in the proportion unmarried and an increase of 4.8% in Married and 1.5% in divorced/widowed women. Parity changes show a decrease in those having 3 or more children and an increase in those having 1-2. Those having 1 live birth will increase by 6.3%, those having 2 live births will increase 20.5%, those with 3 live births will increase 4.4%, those with 4 or more live births will decrease 21.7%, and those with no births will decrease by 9.5%. Stabilization of rates occurs after 2007. The proportion 15-64 years without surviving children will decrease 8.1% The proportion with 1-2 surviving children will increase 9.5% and 1.7%, respectively. The proportion with 4 or more will decline 19.2%. Childless couples will remain at 10-11%, while those with 1-2 children will increase slightly and those with 3 or more will decline from 17.53% to 9.57%. Inaccuracies in prediction are due to lack of relevant data.