Abstract

PIP: The nature and patterns of Pakistani urban growth and implications for the future are discussed. Specific attention is given to the effects of natural increase, in migration, and reclassification or city extension or urban growth. Development expenditures on urban population are also provided. The effects of population pressure on housing, education, health, and employment are also presented. Future growth is anticipated at 55.5 million by 2000 with a constant fertility rate; 36% are expected to live in cities. The maximum increase is expected in Karachi and the urban areas in the provinces of the Punjab and Sindh. The contribution of natural increase to urban growth is estimated at 3.36%, while internal migration is .83% and reclassification or city extension is .11%. The rural-to-urban flow contributes the highest volume to migration flows over urban-to-urban migration. Urban fertility has been stable, and other urban fertility continues to be higher than rural fertility and major urban fertility. Urban infrastructure costs 27% or by 2000 4.7% of the projected gross national products (GNP). Housing growth rates of 3.71% between 1960-80 have not kept pace with population growth of 4.4%, but the shortage of housing has declined faster in urban areas than rural areas where the shortages of housing are greater. Housing conditions in urban areas have not improved. 45% live in pucca kutcha and kutcha housing. 1.3 million housing units are needed in urban areas during 1988-93. There is overcrowding in schools and literacy remains low in rural and urban areas. 2% of the GNP during 1971-85 went to educational funding. 80% of hospital beds and physicians are located in urban areas. There is 1 doctor/1801 persons, 1 bed/610 persons, and 1 hospital/50,000 persons. Only 7% of the 19.4 million urban residents in 1983 had access to potable water, and 48% of 12.12 million people had sewerage and drainage facilities. Agricultural employment is being replaced in urban areas by employment in the informal sector. Out-migration to the Middle East has contributed to a strong economic performance, but recent trends are for return migration. Also affected but not discussed are the effects on urban transportation, water supply, the environment, and town planning.