Abstract

PIP: Urbanization could make important contributions to the control of population growth in China, since urban populations have lower levels of fertility than do rural populations, and permanent migrants from rural to urban areas generally have even lower fertility levels. Population projections were made up to the middle of the next century assuming the presence and the absence of urbanization to illustrate the effect of urbanization on population size and the proportion of older people in the population. The scenario of urbanization shows a smaller population size and a higher proportion of old age population in rural areas than in urban areas. This situation would be favorable to economic growth, and the government would have less responsibility in caring for its old age population than if there were a larger proportion of urban aged. As the level of education is higher and health care provision is better in urban areas generally, urbanization would improve the quality of population. At the present time, fertility among temporary migrants is still high as they are under the influence of cultural factors and some of them migrated temporarily to escape the birth control program of their original place of residence. Policy regulations and programs are necessary in order for temporary migrant workers to abide by the birth control regulations of the place of destination and to restrict their fertility. Long-term settlements of young rural migrants in cities or towns will contribute to urban economic developments and reduce their fertility.