Abstract

PIP: Multiregional life tables at various ages developed by Rogers and Willekins are used to examine the urban and rural dynamics of population (fertility and out-migration expectations) in China. Period-cohort survival rates are used in the calculation of survival probability. A unit radix is assumed in the calculation of the life table for each age. The life expectation of the female population a birth is 73.59 years in urban areas and 72.46 in rural areas. Male life expectancy is 69.73 years in urban areas and 58.99 in rural areas. Life expectancies are higher for rural males aged over 20 years and females aged over 60 years because of urban and rural differences in out-migration and mortality rates. Life expectancy for the rural males over age 60 is 16.55 and for urban males over age 60 is 16.00. Rural females over age 70 have a life expectancy of 12.25 years and urban females over age 70 have a life expectancy of 12.04 years. In the calculation of fertility expectations, the occurrence-exposure fertility rates of period cohorts are estimated from the forward fertility rates of period cohorts by means of forward mortality rates. The occurrence-exposure fertility rate of life table cohort y is calculated from the occurrence-exposure fertility rates of period cohorts r (y) and r(y + 1). A female born in an urban area is expected to have 1.82 children in an urban area and .06 children in a rural area. A female born in a rural area is expected to have 2.10 children in a rural area and .35 children in an urban area. Rural population has a much higher net reproduction rate than urban population. In the calculation of the net migraproduction (spatial out-migration expectation), forward out-migration rates of period cohorts are used for estimation of occurrence-exposure out-migration rates of period cohorts. Mortality rates are included in the calculation of population at risk. Out-migration rates are modified to account for nonsurvival migrants using mortality rates of the destination region. The occurrence-exposure out-migration rate of the life table cohort y is estimated similarly as the fertility rates of life table cohorts. A female born in an urban area is likely to make .0451 migrations out of the region; a female born in a rural region is likely to make .3491 out-migrations. A male born in an urban area is likely to make .0475 out-migrations; a male born in a rural area is likely to make .2903 out-migrations.