Abstract

PIP: In 1975, the Barcelona Convention to Protect the Sea was signed with an action plan to deal with marine pollution and halting land-based contributions to water pollution. Specifically, the Blue Plan aimed to attack the interaction between population, natural resources, environmental degradation, and economic development for the entire Mediterranean region. Scenarios were constructed to depict demographic, international economic, and national development prospects. Population was expected to grow from 357 million in 1985 to 575 million in 2025. Population concentration was expected to decline from 66% in the north to 22% in 2025. The populations in the south and east would grow to 5 times the 1950 figures. Fertility rates are expected to fall in the south, as educational levels of women rise. The decline in population in the north will mean an aging population in the north and a young population in the south with employment imbalances. Rapid urbanization will be a problem throughout the region, and particularly in the coastal areas. The demand for water, waste disposal, and conflicting pressures on use of sea and land will be the consequences. Tourism will aggravate general population conditions. The coastal regions currently receive about 100 million international and domestic tourists annually. Under poor economic conditions, scenarios would project tourism increases to 170 million by 2025. Under sustainable development scenarios, the numbers would increase even higher to 340 million tourists, mostly domestic. The environmental impact of tourism centers on the pressure on water resources, space use, and solid and liquid waste, during the summer when the water supply is low and the forests are dry. Most countries rely heavily on tourism for balance of payments and as a source of hard currency for food imports. The expectation is that the coastal areas, though fragile, are the primary asset for Mediterranean countries. Coast management thus far has contributed to erosion, deforestation, and erratic concrete surfacing of shore areas. Delays in sustainable development will only contribute to further pollution. The entire Mediterranean region could face social and ecological disruption in the future if population development needs are not met. Environmental and development issues threaten long-term peace and stability.