Modelling urban-rural population growth in China

Abstract

"The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China.... An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established.... These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions."

PIP: China's population continues to grow despite a dramatic decline in fertility over the past two decades, with the rate of urbanization significantly affecting population growth. There are major urban-rural differentials in fertility in China. In the attempt to model urban-rural population growth in China, a demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors was calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China. Rural-to-urban migration and transition are considered as important components of urban population growth. An accounts-based urban-rural population model in which rural-to-urban migration and transition are driven by the demoeconomic model is developed. The models are then used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions.