Abstract

PIP: The relative impact of the indirect and direct determinants of fertility of Pakistani women was assessed using the 1990/91 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS). A total of 7926 households was selected and 5713 women of reproductive age (15-49 years old) who had at least one birth were interviewed. Several social, economic, and demographic variables were employed to assess the number of children ever born. Ordinary least squares regression was used to estimate four multivariate models of children ever born. The direct and indirect determinants and the control variable of current age were simultaneously entered for each of four models that differed by age: 15-49, 15-24, 25-34, and 35-49 years. There was a 0.5 child difference between children ever born (4.64) and living children (4.11) for the 15-49 age group. This indicates infant and child mortality: 26% of the women experienced at least one child death before the age of 2 years. The oldest group had the lowest percentage ever attending school: 19% vs. 25% and 26% (15-24 and 25-34 age groups, respectively). Education was nonsignificant for the youngest and middle-aged cohorts, but it was negative and significant for the older cohorts. For employment, only the 25-34 age group was negative and significant. Age at marriage and breast feeding were strong and negative for all models. Current use of family planning was positive and significant for the oldest age group and the total. The younger cohorts did not have a negative and significant relationship between education and fertility; and the 15-24 age group living in a major city had significantly higher fertility than their town and village counterparts. The variables that showed differential impact were education, employment, residence, and contraceptive use. Education did not significantly lower fertility for the younger groups, but it did for the older group. Employment significantly lowered fertility for the 25-34 age group. Contraceptive prevalence steadily increased from 7% in the 15-19 age group to nearly 21% in the 35-39 age group.