Abstract

PIP: This work seeks to demonstrate that the combination of ecological degradation, demographic pressure, and ethnic heterogeneity in Central Asia constitute a serious threat to the future stability of the region. The predominantly rural Ferghana Valley and Northern Kazakhstan suffer from shortages of water and land and from unemployment that leads to extensive out-migration to cities suffering from decline in their Soviet-era industries. The problem in the Ferghana Valley began with Tsarist conquest of the valley in 1876 and the subsequent imposition of cotton cultivation, which was greatly expanded by the Soviet Union. The Ferghana Valley, despite being a natural unit, was divided between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan in the 1920s and 1930s, and remains divided between the independent states. The current population of 11 million is ethnically diverse, with Uzbeks in the majority and increasing most rapidly. Immigration from the Caucasus since 1950 added to the tension. Future peace will depend on such factors as whether the neo-Communist political regime chooses to incite ethnic hostilities, the manner in which land is redistributed, and the outcome of struggles for control of the flourishing narcotics trade. The northern Kazakhstan region was designated a pioneer wheat-growing region by Soviet planners in 1954. Russian and Ukrainian migrants established between 1954 and 1956 are today the predominant population sector, but feel their privileged position threatened by nationalist policies making Kazakh the official language and giving preference in employment to Kazakhs. Resettlement of Kazakhs from Mongolia, China, and Afghanistan in the region and the high Kazakh birth rate increase tensions. Grain production initially grew rapidly, but the mediocre soil and erosion-inducing constant dry winds have caused production to stagnate or decline. Regional disputes within Kazakhstan complicate the situation. Northern Kazakhstan, with its industrial development, is integrated more with the Urals and Western Siberia than with the rest of Kazakhstan. Serious ethnic conflicts in either Kazakhstan or the Ferghana Valley are likely to spill far beyond their local boundaries, embroiling much of the area in hostilities.