Abstract

PIP: This article describes trends in population aging during 1982-2000, 2000-2025, and 2025-2050, in China. The authors identify the impacts of aging on socioeconomic development and strategies for dealing with population aging in China. The population aged over 60 years will increase to 129 million, or 10.2% of total population, by the year 2000. Aging began in the early 1970s when fertility began to decline. The adult population grew, and the dependency ratio declined. By 2025, the elderly will number 278 million, or 18.5% of total population. The increase during 2000-2025 constitutes a net increase of 150 million persons in 25 years. The aging problem will have a greater impact in rural areas with a large number of young and adult migrants to urban areas. The elderly will reach 389 million in 2050, or 25.8% of total population. The dependency ratio will be the maximum, and age distributions will stabilize. Every 100 working-age persons will support about 40 elderly persons and 30 children. Elderly laborers will comprise over 33% of the total working-age population. In 2000, every 100 working-age persons will support 10.6 elderly persons. Labor resources will be insufficient by 2050. The traditional function of the family as a primary supporter of the elderly is gradually becoming weakened. China must develop a development plan that balances population aging and socioeconomic development. China must rapidly develop the economy with its current abundant labor resources. China must devise a unique social security system. China must improve community services and social welfare programs.