Abstract

PIP: The relentless course of the AIDS pandemic in the world, the U.S. and in Africa is summarized with recent data and theoretical models. WHO has received reports of 345,533 cases as of April 1, 1991 from 162 countries, but estimates that over 1 million is more accurate. The proportion of women infected is 1/3 worldwide, 1/8 in the U.S. and 1/1 in Africa. In 2000 the ratio is expected to be 1:1 overall. In the U.S. 100,777 cases were reported from 1981-1990, yet one-third were actually reported in 1990, showing an acceleration in cases. AIDS became the leading cause of death in young deaths, including women aged 20-40. 59% of cases were homosexual and bisexual men; 21% were intravenous drug users. Death rates have been highest for Blacks (29.3%), Hispanics (22.2%), compared to 8.7% for Whites and 2.8% for Asians and American Natives. The CDC estimates that about 1 million are infected with HIV in the U.S., with median survival times of 18 months. 25% of the world's AIDS cases are thought to be in sub-Saharan Africa, where heterosexual contact is the primary mode of transmission. AIDS is expected to kill 1.5-3 million women in Central and East Africa in the 1990s, orphaning million of children. 15-45% of pregnancy infected women pass HIV to their newborns, accounting for 250,000 HIV-infected infants in Africa by 1992. Predictions by the U.S. Department of State Interagency Working Group are that HIV will multiply by 7 in sub-Saharan Africa by 2015, infecting 8% of the total population and 16% of urban people. Average survival will be reduced by 19 years and population growth will decrease to 1.8%, still a moderate growth rate.