Abstract

PIP: This commentary is a preliminary review of Chinese population control between 1978-88 and future choices. There is discussion of new problems in population control, new experiments in population control, and the beneficial impact of population control. Control of the population was more effective from 1979 to the present than from 1973-1978. Figures reflect the patterns of age of 1st marriage, marriage rate, fertility rate, single child rate, birth rate, and natural growth rate. Problems are identified as the increase in rural household size and the failures of rural economic reform which stressed responsibility. Age structure also has had an effect. Rural households have changed so that increases have occurred and weakened the population control system. Discussion proceeds with some detail on the changes in household needs, changes that correspond to household size, and the weakening of the population control system. New experiments in population control have occurred in the responsibility systems, through the combination of a strict strategy and flexible tactics, and with the establishment of an extensive network of family planning (FP) departments, which have received increased funding over the years. There has been a strategy of combining and coordinating birth control practice, publicity, and education. Publicity has consisted of both information stressing the necessity of FP and government policies, and knowledge about population theories and birth control. FP techniques are used as appropriate to specific populations; i.e., married, unmarried, newly married, pregnant, or those having recently conceived. Publicity and education are combined with birth control services. Publicity and education also are integrated with the establishment of socialist values. 4 variables that determine the fertility rate have been identified: bachelorhood or spinsterhood, contraception, abortion, and breastfeeding and sterility. These have contributed to the drop in fertility to a current rate of 2.4. There has also been a system of rewards and restrictions to encourage mature age marriage and pregnancy, and the practice of birth control. The beneficial impact is considered in terms of the impact on rapid growth of the population, the improvement in the age structure, the promotion of continuous social development, and the simultaneous success of economic development with fertility decline. Future suggestions are to adopt a policy system and development program that integrates population, social, economic, resource, and environmental elements, and to establish a new population control system which regulates household needs for reporduction and thereby indirectly guides household reproductive behavior. A new self checking mechanism is required which increases the costs of raising children.