Abstract

PIP: Global odds ratios based on children ever born are computed for Egypt based on data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey, the 1984 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, and the 1988 Demographic and Health Survey. Different models of global odds ratios of women not wanting more children are computed and compared. The 1992 data findings with the first row-effect model indicate significant correlations between factors and a rejection of the model but acceptance of the line trend. The second, third, and fourth row-effect models and line trends are all rejected. Global odds ratios are increasing linearly with the number of children ever born. Global odds ratios are differentiated for urban and rural areas. Urban areas follow the national pattern of women with greater educational levels having more children. In rural areas, this means women with a university education have two more children than women with a secondary education. Urban areas follow the national pattern of increased global odds ratios being associated with an increased number of children ever born. Global odds are higher as the level of education increases. Global odds ratios increase as the number of children ever born increases for the first through the third row effects for urban contraceptive users and nonusers and for urban governates users and nonusers. The global odds ratio models for rural contraceptive users and nonusers are accepted for the first row effects only. The global odds ratios are generally higher than previously reported, which suggests that women make their decisions on the basis of living children. The policy implications are that educational levels must be increased through secondary education in order to achieve a family size of three children. At least a primary education must be achieved for a family size of five children. A one child family is not acceptable yet. The global odds ratios for illiterate women are lower in rural areas. Efforts should be directed toward lowering infant mortality in rural areas. Nonusers also have lower odds ratios in rural areas. Efforts should focus on availability of all methods at no cost in rural areas. Economic conditions need to improve in Upper Egypt, particularly in rural areas.