Abstract

PIP: Data were obtained from the government of Pakistan's Census Organization and the Population Welfare Division to investigate and identify policy-relevant factors which influence fertility at an aggregate level by examining the supply, demand, and cost factors of fertility regulation. Information on fertility, mortality, nuptiality, and other socioeconomic variables was gathered for the 63 districts of Pakistan. The 3 districts of Karachi division were taken together as there appeared to be no appreciable variation among those districts. The unit of analysis was a district, which, as an administrative unit, ranks in importance after a province and a division. The dependent variable of an aggregate fertility measure is Total Fertility Rate (TFR). The TFR was measured indirectly from the age structure through the application of the stable population model. Only 2 variables appeared significant in their effect on fertility, i.e., enrollment ratio and marriage age, which tended to show a negative effect on fertility when controlled for other socioeconomic development variables. The effect of urbanization, although insignificant, showed a positive association with fertility; it was expected to have a negative association. The mean age at marriage was dropped from the equation in Table 2 because of its association with infant mortality. Only enrollment appeared to be a significant variable. In Table 3, only 3 variables, including urbanization, were controlled to rank individual variables in regard to their effect on their fertility. The results did not show any change from those of the 1st equation. In the 4th equation (Table 4), electrification substituted for the variable of urbanization; the results did not differ from those of the previous equation. In the 5th equation (Table 5), the composite variable was controlled with the family planning clinics variable. The effect of family planning clinics was insignificant. The enrollment variable appeared to be the most significant in the equation with the set of other variables. In sum, the study results revealed that fertility was significantly affected by enrollment and nuptiality variables. Other variables -- infant mortality, female labor force participation, urbanization, and electrification -- failed to show any significant effect. This most likely was because of a moratorium on all family planning activities during the period under observation.