Abstract

PIP: DeFreitas examines the principal positions which have emerged among economists about immigration's impact, and reports results of his empirical analysis of the wage and employment effects of both recent undocumented aliens and settled migrants on native-born workers. A large 1980 census microdata bank is used to permit separate estimates for men and women, subdivided by race and Spanish origin. The sample used includes male and female respondents, ages 16-64, in the 79 largest metropolitan areas in the country. To test the segmented labor market model, the author acquired the detailed industrial/occupational matrix developed by Gerald Oster and David Gordon and applied it to the 1980 census microdata. A multivariate regression procedure was used to evaluate immigrant influence on employment and wage levels. The study shows that migrant workers today are disproportionately concentrated in low-wage jobs in distinct industries. Contrary to common belief, recent immigrants do not typically constitute a high-turnover labor pool with unemployment above that of similar natives. Results indicate that increased migration does not significantly affect the employment or wages of native-born Hispanics. Recent undocumented migration does reduce black men's employment and black women's wages; larger concentrations of settled immigrants are associated with lower Anglo wages, but the estimated magnitudes of these effects are not large. Empirical analysis raises questions about the direct applicability to modern immigration of the coreperiphery segmentation scheme used in the dual labor market literature. Nevertheless, the findings appear to be far less consistent with theories emphasizing migrant-native suitability over complementarity. Employment and training programs that provide upward mobility for natives, coupled with stepped-up unionization efforts among both the native and migrant unskilled seem more promising ameliorative measures than present policies focused on surveillance of the Mexican-American border and of millions of immigrant employers. A strong case could also be made for more progressive income redistribution programs. Short of these efforts, perhaps the most promising development in the near future is the decline in the supply of new native labor force entrants brought on by falling birth rates and the aging of the baby-boom cohort. If this continues at the forecasted rate, it is likely that the domestic costs of immigration will become smaller and its benefits more pronounced.