Abstract

PIP: This paper considers policy shifts regarding demographic behavior in industrialized countries in light of both trends in such behavior over the recent past as well as projections of this behavior according to the United Nations mid-range assessments prepared in 1988. Recent trends in population change and their projections were presented in a group of four industrialized regions and the appropriateness of policy and policy change in light of perceptions was also considered for future policy direction. Demographic change in industrialized nations from 1965 to 2025 revealed that the population would grow to 1.5 billion; however, the share of northern and western Europe would decline from 21% to 16%. Fertility would remain 5-10% below replacement level. There would also be a further increase of 4 years in life expectancy until 2025, with the longest extensions in eastern Europe (5 years or 8%). During the past several decades the industrial regions' populations residing in urban areas has risen from 62% to 72%, and this is projected to continue to rise to 79% by 2025, with the greatest increases in southern and eastern Europe. The share of dependents who are at least 65 years old is likely to double from its initial level of about 25%. Government views on demographic behavior from 1976 and 1989 are also compared and summarized. Perception and policies on the rate of population growth changed in 6 countries between 1976 and 1989. Cyprus and Hungary had shifted policies towards enhancing the rate of population growth. Regarding the fertility rates, 8 countries changed perceptions; in Switzerland, Cyprus, and Romania the policy regarding access to contraception was changed. Regarding international migration, 10 governments reported a shift in their perception and 4 indicated previous dissatisfaction for the change, which became more restrictive. Regarding mortality, 8 countries considered that the level had become unacceptable, 4 of these in eastern Europe.