Abstract

PIP: China's State Statistical Bureau estimated in 1996 that China's population size during the period 2000-2050 would increase from 1.27 billion to 1.48 billion by 2030 and decline to 1.42 billion by 2050. These estimates are based on a stable 1995 total fertility rate of 1.9 children/woman. At present, China has 1.2 billion people. If China has a population of 1.6 billion by 2030, China will need to produce 640 million tons of grain annually to meet the yearly need of 400 kg of grain per capita. In order to guarantee an additional 160 million tons of grain output, grain output must be increased by 30% over the next 30 years, or 1% yearly. The average annual growth in grain output has been 3.1% since 1949. In 1996 there was a record harvest that yielded over 400 kg/person. About 66% (90 million hectares) of China's total cultivated land is low- and medium-yield land. Grain output may increase by over 30% due to advanced genetic techniques and advanced farming techniques. Unused land includes 20 million hectares of cultivatable wasteland and 250 million hectares of grasslands. Other resources include 2 million hectares of inland water surface and 3 million sq. km of shallow sea that could be used for aquatic culture. China is capable of producing 818 million tons of grain annually, if irrigation and farming techniques improve. The maximum potential is 1026 million tons yearly. China is studying the possibility of diverting its abundant water resources from South China to irrigate arid farmland in the north. Three routes are possible: diversion of about 20 billion cu. m from the west part of upper Yangtze River to the Yellow River; diversion of 14 billion cu. m from eastern Yangtze north along the Gread Canal; and diversion centrally from the Hanshui River to Beijing. Water-efficient technologies are the most practical solution and could save 100 billion cu. m yearly.