Creative use of statistics deceives public
- PMID: 12349009
Creative use of statistics deceives public
Abstract
PIP: The Alan Guttmacher Institute (AGI), Planned Parenthood's research organization, has announced a decline in the US teenage pregnancy rate to its lowest level since 1975; the rate peaked in 1990 at 117 pregnancies/1000 women aged 15-19 years, but is now only 101/1000. An AGI senior associate attributes the decline to a greater emphasis upon delaying the initiation of sexual activity; more conservative attitudes among teens about casual sex and out-of-wedlock childbearing; fear of sexually transmitted diseases, especially AIDS; the popularity of Norplant and Depo-Provera; and a strong economy, with better job prospects for young people. Since messages about abstinence and consistent contraceptive use seem to be having an impact upon teens, the AGI associate recommends that adolescents continue to be provided with such combined messages. The author, however, cites evidence supporting the failure of programs which combine contraceptive education with messages to be abstinent. The data also fail to indicate to what extent the observed reduction in births to teenagers is due to a possible increase in the incidence of abortion, and overlook the fact that many teen births are to young, married women. With regard to the AGI findings, out of every 1000 adolescent girls in the study populations, 14 were under age 15 in 1990, compared to 12 in the most recent group. The author explains why the decline noted by the Planned Parenthood Federation is only a statistical figment of the imagination.
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