Preoperative prediction of early mortality and morbidity in coronary bypass surgery

Abstract

Objective: A scoring system to predict early mortality and morbidity in CABG, distinguishing low and high risk patients.

Methods: 563 patients (1998) served as development dataset, 969 patients as validation set. Univariate and logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors.

Results: Gender, hypertension, pulmonary disease, reoperation, age, operative status and left-ventricular function were predictive variables for early mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81. We identified a low risk, mortality of 1.8% and a high-risk group, mortality of 13.4%. Diabetes, hypertension, kidney and lung disease, reoperation, operative status and left ventricular function were predictive variables for morbidity. The area under the ROC curve was 0.73. We identified a low risk, morbidity of 17%, and a high-risk group, morbidity of 41%.

Conclusion: This scoring system is a simple system identifying a low and high-risk group for morbidity and early mortality.