Development and use of a new staging system for severe acute pancreatitis based on a nationwide survey in Japan

Abstract

Methodology: In 1997, a cooperative nationwide survey of 192 patients diagnosed with severe acute pancreatitis in 1996 was carried out.

Results: Alcoholic pancreatitis was the major etiology (46%), and the male-to-female ratio was 2.6:1. Overall, the mortality rate was 27%, which was similar to the rate (30%) in the first nationwide survey of 1,219 patients diagnosed between 1982 and 1986 that was performed in 1987. A marked difference between the surveys was the early mortality rate within 2 weeks: 52% in the 1987 survey and 29% in the current survey. We devised a new stage classification system for acute pancreatitis. Stages 0 and 1 are equivalent to mild and moderate conditions, respectively, in the conventional classification, and stages 2 and higher correspond to severe acute pancreatitis. Severity scores of 2-8 are regarded as stage 2, scores of 9-14, as stage 3, and scores of > or =15, as stage 4. The mortality rates were as follows: 0, stages 0 and 1 at hospitalization; approximately 10%, stage 2; approximately 30-40%, stage 3; and approximately 70-100%, stage 4.

Conclusion: We found that stage at hospitalization reflected the prognosis of acute pancreatitis.