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. 2003 Feb 3;178(3):113-6.
doi: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.2003.tb05100.x.

Risk functions for prediction of cardiovascular disease in elderly Australians: the Dubbo Study

Leon A Simons  1 , Judith Simons, Yechiel Friedlander, John McCallum, Latha Palaniappan
Affiliations

Risk functions for prediction of cardiovascular disease in elderly Australians: the Dubbo Study

Leon A Simons et al. Med J Aust. .

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate a Framingham risk function for coronary heart disease in an elderly Australian cohort and to derive a risk function for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in elderly Australians.

Design and setting: Analysis of data from a prospective cohort study (the Dubbo Study) in a semi-urban town (population, 34 000).

Participants: 2805 men and women 60 years and older living in the community, first assessed in 1988, and a subcohort of 2102 free of CVD at study entry.

Main outcome measures: Incidence of CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary death or stroke) over 5 and 10 years.

Results: A Framingham risk function assessing "hard" coronary heart disease (ie, myocardial infarction or coronary death) accurately predicted 10-year incidence in men and women aged 60-79 years who were free of prevalent CVD or diabetes at study entry. In a multiple logistic model, CVD incidence was significantly predicted by age, sex, taking antihypertensive medication, blood pressure, smoking, total cholesterol level and diabetes. For a given age and cholesterol level, CVD risk over 5 years was doubled in the presence of antihypertensive medication or diabetes, increased by 50% with cigarette smoking, and halved in women compared with men.

Conclusions: We have derived a simple CVD risk function specifically for elderly Australians that employs risk factors readily accessible to all medical practitioners.

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Conflict of interest statement

COMPETING INTERESTS

None identified.

Comment in

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