Rate of natural disease progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Abstract

Background/aims: The interval at which liver biopsy should be repeated in untreated patients with chronic hepatitis C is not defined. We examined fibrosis change by METAVIR scoring in these patients in whom two or more liver biopsies were available.

Methods: One hundred and eighty patients with histologically proven chronic hepatitis C were studied. Mean delay between biopsies was 3.67+/-2.69 years and 3.08+/-1.43 in the 16 patients having three biopsies. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine factors associated with liver fibrosis progression.

Results: Median rate of fibrosis progression per year was 0.04 (0.00-0.55) to first biopsy, 0.00 (-0.84-1.02) between first and second biopsy (NS), and 0.17 (0.00-1.50) between second and third biopsy (P<0.05). In multivariate analysis, only age at first biopsy >40 years (OR=5) (2-12) and alcohol consumption of 1-50 g per day (OR=4) (2-12) and more than 50 g per day (OR=8) (3-23) were associated with severe fibrosis. The number of patients who increased in fibrosis stage was significantly higher after 4 years (P<0.02).

Conclusions: An interval of at least 4-5 years is needed between liver biopsies to measure change in patients with mild liver disease.